According to statistics within the caliber of Aladdin (ALD), as of now, China's alumina built-up production capacity has reached 103 million tons, breaking through the 100 million-ton mark, and its operating production capacity has reached 83.2 million tons. There are still new alumina projects under construction, so the built-up capacity will further increase. At present, the operating capacity of imported mines has reached 52 million tons. If this operating capacity is maintained, then the annual demand for imported mines will be around 140 million tonnes. If the new production capacity requires building a warehouse, this year’s imported mine purchases are expected to reach 1.5 million tons. million tons.
The newly added production capacity in the past two years has been imported ore as raw material, which has also led to a substantial increase in the demand for imported ore. In 2022, the amount of imported bauxite in China will reach a record 125.6978 million tons. According to the rough statistics of Aladdin (ALD), 15 domestic purchasers have also reached more than 130 million tons of ore purchase orders.
According to the latest customs data, in the first two months of 2023, China imported 23.6171 million tons of bauxite, of which bauxite imports in January reached a record 12.3809 million tons, and 9.206 million tons of Guinea bauxite were imported. is a record high. In February, Guinea imported 7.9178 million tons of bauxite, the second in history. The historical import volume in these two months seems to prove a point that Guinea has the ability to transport, barge and load more than 8 million tons of aluminum during the dry season. The ability of soil mining.
Judging from the monthly import volume of Guinea, the fluctuation of monthly import volume increased, and the import volume decreased significantly during the rainy season, but even so, the overall increase in import volume was still very obvious. In addition, mining companies are also actively looking for ways to solve the problem of declining shipments caused by the excessively long rainy season. For example, the belt operation and maintenance team of Chinalco Guinea has carried out more than 20 major technological transformations such as ore particle size control, which can be better solved. In order to solve the problems of strong impact of ore, blockage and throwing in rainy season, and dusty season in dry season, a stable production system has been established to adapt to two extreme weathers in rainy season and dry season.
First, how is the implementation of ore orders of 140-150 million tons? On the one hand, many of these orders are future long-term futures. From the signing of the order to mining, transportation, shipment, arrival at the port, etc., it sometimes takes a long process. During this period, there may be many factors that disrupt the execution of the order, and there are many cases where the order cannot be executed.
Second, demand fluctuates. The inland alumina factories represented by Jinyu still have demand for imported ore. Many factories are not in full production. The aluminum market and price have undergone major changes, and the demand for imported ore will also increase or decrease.
Third, Guinea's mining capacity. Although Guinea's import volume reached 9.206 million tons in January, it is difficult for Guinea to maintain a high monthly export volume due to weather conditions and the mining and transportation capacity of mining companies. If the annual import volume reaches 150 million tons, then It means that Guinea must be able to export 100 million tons of ore, and the monthly ore export volume exceeds 8.3 million tons. Judging from past data and experience, we still need to remain skeptical.
Therefore, it is clear that the demand space for China's imported mines will be further expanded in 2023, and the increase in imports is in line with the predictions of market participants. Changes that do not meet expectations are also part of the market.
